PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Fnaticloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 18 games
Puckoften banned
bzm · 16 games
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 15 games
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 14 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
Void Spiritsignature
bzm · 12 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
Fnatic
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
645 picks · 465 bans
Puck
443 picks · 964 bans
Dawnbreaker
377 picks · 451 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 189 bans
Mars
340 picks · 567 bans
Marci
328 picks · 649 bans
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 433 bans
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 53%
Hero pool strength60% OG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:35
OG 59%Fnatic 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by Fnatic in 33:35.
Game 2prediction correct37:23
OG 59%Fnatic 41%
The model gave 59% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:21.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2