PGL Arlington Major 2022 · BO2
result vs prediction
Soniqsloss 0:2series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Liquidwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Soniqs
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Grimstroke
iNSaNiA · 14 games
Tiny
miCKe · 14 games
Marsoften banned
zai · 12 games
Iooften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
iNSaNiA · 11 games
Razorsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 11 games
Lone Druidsignature
MATUMBAMAN · 10 games
Hoodwink
Boxi · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
645 picks · 465 bans
Puck
443 picks · 964 bans
Dawnbreaker
377 picks · 451 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 189 bans
Mars
340 picks · 567 bans
Marci
328 picks · 649 bans
Dragon Knight
315 picks · 433 bans
Ember Spirit
302 picks · 591 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:23
Soniqs 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:03.
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Soniqs 32%Team Liquid 68%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 36:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2