Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
11Monkeyzloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
MooN team
No games played over 6 months.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
648 picks · 476 bans
Puck
446 picks · 967 bans
Dawnbreaker
370 picks · 438 bans
Snapfire
366 picks · 189 bans
Mars
349 picks · 587 bans
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 447 bans
Marci
317 picks · 641 bans
Bane
308 picks · 190 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 47%
Hero pool strength50% MooN team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total65% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct47:15
MooN team 65%11Monkeyz 35%
The model gave 65% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 34:41.
Game 2prediction correct42:36
MooN team 65%11Monkeyz 35%
The model gave 65% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 44:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 65%
Series resultMooN team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2