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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
EZ KATKAloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
IVYwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EZ KATKA

Puck
Puckoften banned
Rvze · 3 games
67%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Lukas · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Rvze · 2 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Lefitan · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Lukas · 2 games
50%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkeroften banned
Wuiter · 2 games
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Lefitan · 2 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Lefitan · 2 games
50%

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 24 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 15 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 11 games
55%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
jmn- · 10 games
60%
Razor
Razoroften banned
Max · 10 games
40%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 10 games
70%
Chen
Chenoften banned
jmn- · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
640 picks · 473 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 958 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
369 picks · 435 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
365 picks · 189 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 579 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
330 picks · 442 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
316 picks · 638 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
303 picks · 187 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength55% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:17
EZ KATKA 43%IVY 57%
The model gave 57% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 10:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightRvze
52% · 117 games43% · 103 games
TimbersawMo13ei
Timbersaw
Visage
VisageWuiter
61% · 37 games40% · 71 game
ViperMax
Viper
Leshrac
LeshracLukas
54% · 72 games55% · 130 games
Templar AssassinLowskill
Templar Assassin
Io
IoLefitan
53% · 100 games40% · 22 games
PudgeQupe
Pudge
Game 2prediction correct38:37
EZ KATKA 43%IVY 57%
The model gave 57% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 43:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritRvze
47% · 240 games55% · 48 games
BristlebackLowskill
Bristleback
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerLukas
42% · 156 games54% · 120 games
Queen of PainMax
Queen of Pain
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterWuiter
little data48% · 90 games
ViperMo13ei
Viper
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightLefitan
51% · 152 games56% · 290 games
TinyQupe
Tiny
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 63%
Series resultIVY 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2