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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
TSMwin 3:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Quincy Crewloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

TSM

Bane
Banesignature
DuBu · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MoonMeander · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
bryle- · 12 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
bryle- · 11 games
64%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
DuBu · 11 games
82%
Tiny
Tiny
Timado · 11 games
45%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Timado · 10 games
90%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
SabeRLight- · 10 games
70%

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
635 picks · 475 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
445 picks · 954 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
365 picks · 189 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
364 picks · 430 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 583 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 446 bans
50%
Marci
Marci
315 picks · 631 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
308 picks · 190 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% TSM
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total51% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:18
TSM 49%Quincy Crew 51%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by TSM in 39:51.
Game 2prediction correct9:33
TSM 49%Quincy Crew 51%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 32:03.
Game 3prediction correct13:34
TSM 49%Quincy Crew 51%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 34:14.
Game 4prediction missed36:21
TSM 49%Quincy Crew 51%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by TSM in 37:31.
Game 5prediction missed26:9
TSM 49%Quincy Crew 51%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by TSM in 37:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 51%
Series resultTSM 3:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 5