LBZS vs WOLF — prediction EOM2ЗК · Dota 2

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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

LBZSwin 2:0

series probability

50%50%

probability at match start · final 2:0

WWOLFloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Tiny

CatYou · 11 games

36%

Hoodwink

CatYou · 8 games

50%

Kunkkaoften banned

Shanks · 6 games

Leshracoften banned

Shanks · 6 games

33%

Death Prophetoften banned

Shanks · 5 games

40%

Earth Spirit

CatYou · 5 games

60%

Linaoften banned

Shanks · 4 games

25%

Puckoften banned

Shanks · 4 games

50%

WOLF

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

629 picks · 476 bans

51%

Puck

444 picks · 950 bans

55%

Snapfire

366 picks · 189 bans

51%

Dawnbreaker

362 picks · 426 bans

46%

Mars

351 picks · 588 bans

47%

Dragon Knight

333 picks · 453 bans

50%

Marci

312 picks · 626 bans

52%

Bane

311 picks · 194 bans

57%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)56% vs 63%

Hero pool strength55% WOLF

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total50% LBZS

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed45:36

LBZS 48%WOLF 52%

The model gave 52% on WOLF — the game was taken by LBZS in 48:24.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo