ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LBLucky Birdloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wildcard Gaming
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
Tiny
iAnnihilate · 16 games
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 13 games
Marsoften banned
Sunlight · 13 games
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 12 games
Skywrath Magesignature
The Warden · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 5 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 5 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 4 games
Zeus
FrancisLee · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
626 picks · 469 bans
Puck
440 picks · 947 bans
Snapfire
364 picks · 189 bans
Dawnbreaker
360 picks · 420 bans
Mars
350 picks · 585 bans
Dragon Knight
333 picks · 453 bans
Bane
310 picks · 194 bans
Marci
309 picks · 620 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 84%
Hero pool strength59% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Wildcard Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:25
Wildcard Gaming 52%Lucky Bird 48%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 55:35.
Game 2prediction missed16:21
Wildcard Gaming 52%Lucky Bird 48%
The model gave 52% on Wildcard Gaming — the game was taken by Lucky Bird in 37:36.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard Gaming · 52%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2