ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionWWOLFwin 2:0
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
WOLF
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Brewmastersignature
TK · 11 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Xwy · 7 games
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
Tiny
TK · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Ulu · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
626 picks · 471 bans
Puck
438 picks · 943 bans
Snapfire
363 picks · 189 bans
Mars
358 picks · 588 bans
Dawnbreaker
356 picks · 416 bans
Dragon Knight
338 picks · 459 bans
Bane
317 picks · 196 bans
Marci
306 picks · 617 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
WOLF 33%Aster.Aries 67%
The model gave 67% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by WOLF.
Game 2prediction missed
WOLF 33%Aster.Aries 67%
The model gave 67% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by WOLF.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 67%
Series resultWOLF 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2