ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
nounsloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Quincy Crewwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
nouns
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 10 games
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 8 games
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 8 games
Marcioften banned
Husky · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Husky · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Moo · 6 games
Clockwerk
ZfreeK · 5 games
Snapfire
Husky · 5 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
620 picks · 467 bans
Puck
432 picks · 940 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
Mars
358 picks · 586 bans
Dawnbreaker
353 picks · 411 bans
Dragon Knight
337 picks · 457 bans
Bane
316 picks · 196 bans
Marci
306 picks · 608 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)68% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total51% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:42
nouns 49%Quincy Crew 51%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 1:00:43.
Game 2prediction correct7:34
nouns 49%Quincy Crew 51%
The model gave 51% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 19:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 51%
Series resultQuincy Crew 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2