ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
The Cutloss 0:2series probability
9%91%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Quincy Crewwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
The Cut
Skywrath Mage
bgod · 12 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 10 games
Techies
bgod · 10 games
Bane
Overlom · 8 games
Necrophosoften banned
high_shaggy · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Rajjix · 6 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 6 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 5 games
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
616 picks · 464 bans
Puck
431 picks · 936 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 187 bans
Mars
358 picks · 585 bans
Dawnbreaker
350 picks · 406 bans
Dragon Knight
336 picks · 456 bans
Bane
316 picks · 196 bans
Marci
304 picks · 602 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 69%
Hero pool strength58% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total91% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:27
The Cut 9%Quincy Crew 91%
The model gave 91% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 22:05.
Game 2prediction correct23:34
The Cut 9%Quincy Crew 91%
The model gave 91% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by Quincy Crew in 43:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 91%
Series resultQuincy Crew 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2