nouns vs Lucky Bird — prediction EOM2ЗК · Dota 2

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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3

result vs prediction

nounswin 2:0

series probability

73%27%

probability at match start · final 2:0

LBLucky Birdloss 0:2

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

nouns

Dragon Knightsignature

Moo · 10 games

90%

Enchantressoften banned

Husky · 8 games

50%

Enigmasignature

ZfreeK · 8 games

75%

Marcioften banned

Husky · 7 games

43%

Winter Wyvern

Husky · 7 games

43%

Beastmastersignature

Moo · 6 games

67%

Clockwerk

ZfreeK · 5 games

40%

Snapfire

Husky · 5 games

60%

Lucky Bird

Pucksignature

BlackSoul · 7 games

86%

Templar Assassinoften banned

Rises · 4 games

100%

Tiny

FrancisLee · 4 games

75%

Ember Spiritoften banned

BlackSoul · 3 games

67%

Monkey Kingoften banned

Rises · 3 games

67%

Queen of Painoften banned

BlackSoul · 3 games

67%

Tusk

FrancisLee · 3 games

67%

Weaveroften banned

Rises · 3 games

100%

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

616 picks · 464 bans

51%

Puck

431 picks · 936 bans

56%

Snapfire

361 picks · 187 bans

51%

Mars

358 picks · 585 bans

47%

Dawnbreaker

350 picks · 406 bans

46%

Dragon Knight

336 picks · 456 bans

50%

Bane

316 picks · 196 bans

57%

Marci

304 picks · 602 bans

52%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)67% vs 88%

Hero pool strength53% Lucky Bird

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total73% nouns

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction correct0:0

nouns 73%Lucky Bird 27%

The model gave 73% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 54:51.

Game 2prediction correct30:21

nouns 60%Lucky Bird 40%

The model gave 60% on nouns — the game was taken by nouns in 59:32.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo