ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 31 game
Jakirooften banned
Panto · 31 game
Tusksignature
rue · 30 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 24 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 24 games
Slardarsignature
Collapse · 22 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Collapse · 19 games
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Xtreme Gaming
Warlock
xNova · 29 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 21 game
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 20 games
Phoenix
xNova · 20 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 20 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
687 picks · 843 bans
Tiny
595 picks · 610 bans
Tusk
491 picks · 423 bans
Warlock
486 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 1108 bans
Shadow Fiend
405 picks · 1028 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 699 bans
Mars
392 picks · 629 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% Team Spirit
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total71% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:14
Team Spirit 62%Xtreme Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 39:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidYatoro
Shadow FiendNothingToSay
Storm SpiritLarl
UrsaAme
MarsCollapse
Centaur WarrunnerXxs
PhoenixPanto
Batriderfy
Ringmasterrue
BanexNova
Game 2prediction correct40:28
Team Spirit 63%Xtreme Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 1:02:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaYatoro
Templar AssassinAme
Void SpiritLarl
TimbersawXxs
UnderlordCollapse
Monkey KingNothingToSay
Jakirorue
PhoenixxNova
Treant ProtectorPanto
Lionfy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2