ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Into The Breachloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 8 games
Tinysignature
Ari · 7 games
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
Pucksignature
Supream^ · 6 games
Bane
5up · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
613 picks · 463 bans
Puck
428 picks · 932 bans
Mars
363 picks · 586 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 185 bans
Dawnbreaker
345 picks · 399 bans
Dragon Knight
339 picks · 459 bans
Bane
319 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 79%
Hero pool strength59% Into The Breach
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total66% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed54:17
Entity 66%Into The Breach 34%
The model gave 66% on Entity — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 34:19.
Game 2prediction missed11:40
Entity 66%Into The Breach 34%
The model gave 66% on Entity — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 27:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 66%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2