ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TSTeam Saiyanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
LBZS
Tiny
CatYou · 11 games
Hoodwink
CatYou · 8 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
Leshracoften banned
Shanks · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Shanks · 5 games
Earth Spirit
CatYou · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Shanks · 4 games
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
613 picks · 463 bans
Puck
428 picks · 929 bans
Mars
365 picks · 587 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 185 bans
Dawnbreaker
345 picks · 396 bans
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 459 bans
Bane
320 picks · 196 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 33%
Hero pool strength56% Team Saiyan
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% LBZS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
LBZS 71%Team Saiyan 29%
The model gave 71% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS.
Game 2prediction correct
LBZS 71%Team Saiyan 29%
The model gave 71% on LBZS — the game was taken by LBZS.
Model check result
Model favoriteLBZS · 71%
Series resultLBZS 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2