ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionTSTeam Saiyanwin 2:0
series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Aster.Ariesloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Saiyan
No games played over 6 months.
Aster.Aries
Brewmastersignature
TK · 10 games
Shadow Shamansignature
RedPanda · 9 games
Razoroften banned
Ulu · 7 games
Tiny
TK · 7 games
Winter Wyvernsignature
RedPanda · 7 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
生死 · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Xwy · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
613 picks · 463 bans
Puck
428 picks · 929 bans
Mars
365 picks · 587 bans
Snapfire
361 picks · 185 bans
Dawnbreaker
345 picks · 396 bans
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 459 bans
Bane
320 picks · 196 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 584 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)27% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% Aster.Aries
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% Aster.Aries
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Team Saiyan 17%Aster.Aries 83%
The model gave 83% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Team Saiyan.
Game 2prediction missed
Team Saiyan 17%Aster.Aries 83%
The model gave 83% on Aster.Aries — the game was taken by Team Saiyan.
Model check result
Model favoriteAster.Aries · 83%
Series resultTeam Saiyan 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2