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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
beastcoastloss 1:3
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Thunder Awakenwin 3:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

beastcoast

No games played over 6 months.

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 24 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
77%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 22 games
77%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 19 games
84%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 19 games
79%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Sacred · 16 games
100%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
73%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Matthew · 14 games
93%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
609 picks · 463 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
428 picks · 927 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 587 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
358 picks · 185 bans
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
344 picks · 396 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
342 picks · 459 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
319 picks · 195 bans
58%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 583 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 64%
Hero pool strength67% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total66% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:24
beastcoast 34%Thunder Awaken 66%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:49.
Game 2prediction correct8:32
beastcoast 34%Thunder Awaken 66%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 26:53.
Game 3prediction correct33:6
beastcoast 34%Thunder Awaken 66%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 24:22.
Game 4prediction correct12:34
beastcoast 34%Thunder Awaken 66%
The model gave 66% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 24:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 66%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:3
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game4 of 4