ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Falconsloss 1:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
OGloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 33 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 28 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 21 game
Shadow Demonoften banned
Cr1t- · 21 game
OG
Shadow Demonoften banned
Tims · 29 games
Jakirooften banned
Skem · 28 games
Snapfire
Tims · 28 games
Marssignature
Force · 24 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 21 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 20 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MikSa` · 19 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Yopaj · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
687 picks · 843 bans
Tiny
595 picks · 610 bans
Tusk
491 picks · 423 bans
Warlock
486 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 1108 bans
Shadow Fiend
405 picks · 1028 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 699 bans
Mars
392 picks · 629 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 39%
Hero pool strength60% Team Falcons
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total59% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:18
Team Falcons 54%OG 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 38:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenSkiter
Shadow FiendNatsumi
TimbersawATF
Storm SpiritYopaj
BatriderMalr1ne
BristlebackForce
TinyCr1t-
Keeper of the LightSkem
JakiroSneyking
HoodwinkTims
Game 2prediction missed22:39
Team Falcons 56%OG 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by OG in 43:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawATF
Queen of PainYopaj
Faceless VoidSkiter
MorphlingNatsumi
BatriderMalr1ne
ChenSkem
TinyCr1t-
Primal BeastForce
JakiroSneyking
TuskTims
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2