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ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Xtreme Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 25 games
28%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
54%
Dazzle
Dazzlesignature
GH · 19 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 18 games
44%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 18 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 17 games
24%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 17 games
41%

Xtreme Gaming

Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 28 games
64%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 28 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 22 games
73%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 20 games
55%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
NothingToSay · 20 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 19 games
37%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
687 picks · 841 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
594 picks · 610 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
490 picks · 423 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
485 picks · 337 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
424 picks · 1106 bans
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
405 picks · 1027 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 698 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 627 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 49%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 5
Model total58% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed20:7
Nigma Galaxy 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 26:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNo!ob
47% · 464 games47% · 326 games
Storm SpiritNothingToSay
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
51% · 260 games48% · 87 games
LunaAme
Luna
Weaver
Weaverrincyq
49% · 163 games54% · 276 games
BatriderXxs
Batrider
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightGH
56% · 167 games48% · 459 games
Tinyfy
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
53% · 498 games48% · 404 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct6:32
Nigma Galaxy 46%Xtreme Gaming 54%
The model gave 54% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 34:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackDavai
48% · 264 games45% · 77 games
WeaverAme
Weaver
Marci
Marcirincyq
47% · 237 games50% · 96 games
RazorNothingToSay
Razor
Viper
ViperNo!ob
53% · 111 games52% · 241 game
BatriderXxs
Batrider
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanOmaR
53% · 354 games50% · 163 games
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Io
IoGH
52% · 15 games49% · 404 games
Tuskfy
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2