ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Tempestloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
603 picks · 461 bans
Puck
428 picks · 921 bans
Mars
366 picks · 590 bans
Snapfire
355 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 466 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 388 bans
Bane
319 picks · 199 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Tempest
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
Tempest 23%beastcoast 77%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 32:21.
Game 2prediction correct48:29
Tempest 23%beastcoast 77%
The model gave 77% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 38:22.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 77%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2