ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
92%8%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TBTOXIC BOYS SKRloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marssignature
DarkMago · 22 games
Snapfiresignature
Sacred · 22 games
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 20 games
Abaddonsignature
Panda · 18 games
Ogre Magisignature
Panda · 18 games
Kunkkasignature
DarkMago · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Pakazs · 14 games
Weaversignature
Sacred · 14 games
TOXIC BOYS SKR
Ember Spiritoften banned
Jeimari · 3 games
Abaddonoften banned
Jericho · 2 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Greedy · 2 games
Mirana
Ztok · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Jeimari · 2 games
Tiny
Ztok · 2 games
Weaveroften banned
Greedy · 2 games
Winter Wyvern
Yadomi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
603 picks · 461 bans
Puck
428 picks · 921 bans
Mars
366 picks · 590 bans
Snapfire
355 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 466 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 388 bans
Bane
319 picks · 199 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength62% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total92% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:6
Thunder Awaken 78%TOXIC BOYS SKR 22%
The model gave 78% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 22:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterPakazs
Ember SpiritJeimari
TimbersawSacred
WeaverGreedy
TinyDarkMago
UndyingYadomi
MiranaMatthew
ClockwerkZtok
BanePanda
Game 2prediction correct48:16
Thunder Awaken 80%TOXIC BOYS SKR 20%
The model gave 80% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPakazs
ViperJeimari
Ember SpiritDarkMago
LycanGreedy
BrewmasterSacred
Ogre MagiYadomi
WeaverMatthew
TinyZtok
BanePanda
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 92%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2