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Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
MooN teamwin 2:1
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:1
X3loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MooN team

No games played over 6 months.

X3

Bane
Bane
antoha · 22 games
45%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NattyNarwhal · 19 games
53%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Shergarat · 12 games
50%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
NattyNarwhal · 12 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
smN · 12 games
33%
Tiny
Tiny
velheor · 12 games
42%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
smN · 12 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Shergarat · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
602 picks · 460 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
428 picks · 920 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 590 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
355 picks · 183 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 466 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 387 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
319 picks · 198 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 586 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% X3
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% MooN team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
MooN team 56%X3 44%
The model gave 56% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team in 31:03.
Game 2prediction missed6:20
MooN team 56%X3 44%
The model gave 56% on MooN team — the game was taken by X3 in 15:21.
Game 3prediction correct
MooN team 56%X3 44%
The model gave 56% on MooN team — the game was taken by MooN team.
Model check result
Model favoriteMooN team · 56%
Series resultMooN team 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3