Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
HFloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
11Monkeyzwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
602 picks · 461 bans
Puck
428 picks · 920 bans
Mars
368 picks · 591 bans
Snapfire
355 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 467 bans
Dawnbreaker
340 picks · 387 bans
Bane
320 picks · 198 bans
Ember Spirit
304 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% HF
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total64% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:31
HF 64%11Monkeyz 36%
The model gave 64% on HF — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 49:17.
Game 2prediction correct43:25
HF 64%11Monkeyz 36%
The model gave 64% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 40:09.
Game 3prediction missed43:52
HF 64%11Monkeyz 36%
The model gave 64% on HF — the game was taken by 11Monkeyz in 1:04:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 64%
Series result11Monkeyz 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3