Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs prediction
11Monkeyzloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
11Monkeyz
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 20 games
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
Clockwerk
Qupe · 10 games
Marsoften banned
Max · 10 games
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 10 games
Bane
jmn- · 9 games
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
600 picks · 460 bans
Puck
428 picks · 921 bans
Mars
369 picks · 592 bans
Snapfire
354 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 467 bans
Dawnbreaker
337 picks · 387 bans
Bane
321 picks · 198 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 588 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 63%
Hero pool strength53% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total55% IVY
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:27
11Monkeyz 45%IVY 55%
The model gave 55% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 30:22.
Game 2prediction correct21:32
11Monkeyz 45%IVY 55%
The model gave 55% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 34:52.
Game 3prediction correct8:30
11Monkeyz 45%IVY 55%
The model gave 55% on IVY — the game was taken by IVY in 17:00.
Model check result
Model favoriteIVY · 55%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3