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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
T1loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nevermine · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Force · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Mac · 14 games
36%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boomy · 12 games
58%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Boomy · 11 games
64%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Natsumi · 11 games
73%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Boomy · 10 games
80%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%

T1

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
597 picks · 460 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 920 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 591 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
354 picks · 183 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 466 bans
52%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
337 picks · 384 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
321 picks · 198 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 586 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total63% T1
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:41
Polaris Esports 37%T1 63%
The model gave 63% on T1 — the game was taken by T1 in 34:54.
Game 2prediction missed20:6
Polaris Esports 37%T1 63%
The model gave 63% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 21:39.
Game 3prediction missed29:13
Polaris Esports 37%T1 63%
The model gave 63% on T1 — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteT1 · 63%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3