ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Bane
Prada · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 7 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Prada · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
590 picks · 456 bans
Puck
424 picks · 912 bans
Mars
369 picks · 584 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 467 bans
Snapfire
350 picks · 181 bans
Dawnbreaker
333 picks · 379 bans
Bane
321 picks · 197 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 583 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% beastcoast
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total56% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct46:35
Infamous 44%beastcoast 56%
The model gave 56% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 46:37.
Game 2prediction correct12:13
Infamous 44%beastcoast 56%
The model gave 56% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 13:38.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 56%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2