ESL One Birmingham 2026 · BO2
result vs prediction
PARIVISIONloss 0:2series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MOUZwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PARIVISION
Jakirosignature
Dukalis · 24 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
DM · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
9Class · 19 games
Slardaroften banned
No[o]ne · 18 games
Chenoften banned
Dukalis · 17 games
Kezoften banned
Satanic · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No[o]ne · 16 games
Void Spirit
No[o]ne · 13 games
MOUZ
Tusksignature
yamich · 75 games
Snapfire
Seleri · 52 games
Pudge
yamich · 48 games
Leshracsignature
MidOne · 45 games
Tidehuntersignature
BOOM · 44 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 43 games
Marssignature
BOOM · 41 game
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 41 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
684 picks · 841 bans
Tiny
591 picks · 612 bans
Tusk
488 picks · 422 bans
Warlock
486 picks · 334 bans
Shadow Demon
422 picks · 1105 bans
Shadow Fiend
404 picks · 1023 bans
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 699 bans
Mars
391 picks · 627 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 39%
Hero pool strength54% MOUZ
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total55% PARIVISION
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:32
PARIVISION 50%MOUZ 50%
The model gave 50% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by MOUZ in 29:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSatanic
TidehunterBOOM
BatriderSSS
WindrangerCrystallis
PuckNo[o]ne
Nyx AssassinMidOne
WarlockDukalis
JakiroSeleri
Tiny9Class
Tuskyamich
Game 2prediction missed18:26
PARIVISION 53%MOUZ 47%
The model gave 53% on PARIVISION — the game was taken by MOUZ in 37:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingSatanic
RazorBOOM
BeastmasterNo[o]ne
Dragon KnightCrystallis
TidehunterSSS
PuckMidOne
Shadow Demon9Class
JakiroSeleri
PugnaDukalis
Tuskyamich
Model check result
Model favoritePARIVISION · 55%
Series resultMOUZ 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2