Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 13 · BO3
result vs predictionAArcred.intloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HFwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Arcred.int
Tiny
hina · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Nande · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
hina · 2 games
Mirana
sunset · 2 games
Clockwerk
sunset · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
Nande · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
hina · 1 game
Nyx Assassinoften banned
sunset · 1 game
HF
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 10 games
Iosignature
Kaori · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
587 picks · 453 bans
Puck
423 picks · 905 bans
Mars
369 picks · 582 bans
Dragon Knight
352 picks · 466 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 180 bans
Dawnbreaker
327 picks · 377 bans
Bane
319 picks · 198 bans
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 578 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 61%
Hero pool strength61% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:29
Arcred.int 24%HF 76%
The model gave 76% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 45:00.
Game 2prediction correct25:32
Arcred.int 24%HF 76%
The model gave 76% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 36:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 76%
Series resultHF 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2