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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Summit Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Fbz · 18 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Yopaj · 16 games
75%
Mars
Marssignature
Fbz · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Tims · 16 games
81%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 14 games
79%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Tims · 14 games
64%
Bane
Bane
Skem · 13 games
46%

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
TrazaM · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 9 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 7 games
43%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nj · 6 games
50%
Lion
Lionsignature
czy · 6 games
67%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
czy · 6 games
67%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
TrazaM · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nj · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 447 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
418 picks · 897 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 575 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 462 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
49%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
319 picks · 371 bans
46%
Bane
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
294 picks · 567 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 61%
Hero pool strength59% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:0
BOOM Esports 73%Summit Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 51:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorJaCkky
54% · 259 games48% · 158 games
LunaUnknown-
Luna
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFbz
50% · 237 games48% · 103 games
UndyingTrazaM
Undying
Tiny
TinyYopaj
49% · 370 games44% · 274 games
PuckMercury
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTims
60% · 55 games47% · 398 games
MarsNj
Mars
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSkem
51% · 144 games56% · 132 games
Shadow Shamanczy
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct38:6
BOOM Esports 73%Summit Gaming 27%
The model gave 73% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 19:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerJaCkky
48% · 58 games51% · 436 games
Monkey KingUnknown-
Monkey King
Invoker
InvokerYopaj
50% · 198 games47% · 358 games
Queen of PainMercury
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsFbz
46% · 438 games57% · 271 game
BeastmasterNj
Beastmaster
Mirana
MiranaTims
50% · 186 games47% · 214 games
Rubickczy
Rubick
Bane
BaneSkem
53% · 428 games52% · 29 games
WarlockTrazaM
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 87%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2