?
arrow_backBack to match
European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
VP.Prodigyloss 0:2
series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 28 games
64%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 21 game
43%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 21 game
52%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 17 games
59%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
53%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Disruptor
Disruptor
JANTER · 14 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
JANTER · 14 games
36%

Zero Tenacity

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
MoOz · 43 games
58%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 42 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 40 games
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 39 games
69%
Bristleback
Bristleback
Nefrit · 38 games
58%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Worick · 32 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Se · 31 game
65%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 30 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
680 picks · 840 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
589 picks · 610 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
486 picks · 420 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
486 picks · 330 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
420 picks · 1102 bans
56%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
401 picks · 1018 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
400 picks · 698 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
390 picks · 629 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total70% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:37
VP.Prodigy 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 37:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Underlord
Underlordtakizawa
46% · 237 games52% · 193 games
Shadow FiendKami
Shadow Fiend
Clinkz
Clinkzcutie
53% · 132 games50% · 330 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritSerenada
42% · 484 games50% · 279 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
Dazzleraregods
47% · 155 games49% · 210 games
Shadow ShamandEsire
Shadow Shaman
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiJANTER
55% · 79 games59% · 75 games
Treant ProtectorMoOz
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct33:45
VP.Prodigy 39%Zero Tenacity 61%
The model gave 61% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 56:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezcutie
44% · 130 games43% · 93 games
LunaKami
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainSerenada
42% · 281 game51% · 244 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Razor
Razortakizawa
53% · 167 games57% · 177 games
UnderlordNefrit
Underlord
Tiny
Tinyraregods
50% · 482 games49% · 597 games
JakiroMoOz
Jakiro
Disruptor
DisruptorJANTER
49% · 411 games59% · 360 games
HoodwinkdEsire
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 70%
Series resultZero Tenacity 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2