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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hot Headed Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 18 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Malr1ne · 17 games
59%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
VANSKOR · 15 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Kiritych · 14 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Kiritych · 14 games
43%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
VANSKOR · 13 games
54%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Heaven · 12 games
67%
Bane
Banesignature
VANSKOR · 10 games
80%

Hot Headed Gaming

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 442 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
416 picks · 893 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 575 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
351 picks · 179 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 463 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
317 picks · 368 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
290 picks · 567 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 67%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 65%Hot Headed Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Game 2prediction correct
Nemiga Gaming 65%Hot Headed Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 65%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2