ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
cybercatswin 2:0series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 16 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hduo · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 12 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 12 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 11 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
578 picks · 442 bans
Puck
416 picks · 893 bans
Mars
363 picks · 575 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 179 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 463 bans
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
Dawnbreaker
317 picks · 368 bans
Ember Spirit
290 picks · 567 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% HellRaisers
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total71% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:18
cybercats 29%HellRaisers 71%
The model gave 71% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by cybercats in 28:27.
Game 2prediction missed39:32
cybercats 29%HellRaisers 71%
The model gave 71% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by cybercats in 44:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 71%
Series resultcybercats 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2