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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spiritwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 11 games
73%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Nisha · 9 games
78%
Doom
Doomsignature
Zayac · 8 games
63%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
43%

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 12 games
83%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
91%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 11 games
64%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
73%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
577 picks · 441 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
415 picks · 892 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
363 picks · 574 bans
46%
Snapfire
Snapfire
351 picks · 178 bans
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 463 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
317 picks · 197 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
315 picks · 368 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
290 picks · 564 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:8
Team Secret 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Secret in 42:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingCrystallis
61% · 195 games44% · 62 games
UrsaYatoro
Ursa
Zeus
ZeusNisha
52% · 79 games36% · 91 game
DawnbreakerCollapse
Dawnbreaker
Doom
DoomResolut1on
55% · 74 games45% · 133 games
KunkkaTORONTOTOKYO
Kunkka
Chen
ChenPuppey
51% · 32 games53% · 95 games
PhoenixMira
Phoenix
Earthshaker
EarthshakerZayac
52% · 40 games44% · 39 games
WarlockMiposhka
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct8:19
Team Secret 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 31:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerResolut1on
45% · 147 games53% · 35 games
BristlebackYatoro
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
55% · 197 games47% · 90 games
ViperCollapse
Viper
Juggernaut
JuggernautCrystallis
53% · 99 games50% · 201 game
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
Pangolier
Chen
ChenPuppey
44% · 41 game48% · 269 games
TinyMira
Tiny
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonZayac
56% · 128 games60% · 17 games
DazzleMiposhka
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct10:45
Team Secret 43%Team Spirit 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNisha
53% · 324 games53% · 90 games
Night StalkerCollapse
Night Stalker
Doom
DoomResolut1on
52% · 124 games53% · 202 games
Monkey KingYatoro
Monkey King
Ursa
UrsaCrystallis
52% · 111 games50% · 209 games
Void SpiritTORONTOTOKYO
Void Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressPuppey
44% · 131 game49% · 146 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Jakiro
JakiroZayac
41% · 91 game52% · 134 games
Winter WyvernMiposhka
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3