ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaiserswin 1:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Brameloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Brame
Beastmasteroften banned
SkyLark · 15 games
Shadow Shamansignature
SsaSpartan · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
ThuG · 13 games
Vipersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Mirana
dEsire · 11 games
Sand Kingoften banned
ThuG · 11 games
Skywrath Mage
dEsire · 11 games
Storm Spiritsignature
ThuG · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
579 picks · 444 bans
Puck
416 picks · 892 bans
Mars
364 picks · 579 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 178 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 465 bans
Bane
316 picks · 201 bans
Dawnbreaker
313 picks · 368 bans
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 568 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total64% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
HellRaisers 64%Brame 36%
The model gave 64% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 64%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1