ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionSSCAGIloss 0:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 0:1
cybercatswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
SCAGI
No games played over 6 months.
cybercats
Hoodwink
Fezor · 24 games
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 18 games
Sand Kingsignature
DkFogas · 16 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Hduo · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Hduo · 12 games
Jakiro
Hduo · 12 games
Chaos Knightoften banned
Shigetsu · 11 games
Doomsignature
Fezor · 11 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
579 picks · 445 bans
Puck
417 picks · 892 bans
Mars
364 picks · 580 bans
Dragon Knight
351 picks · 465 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 178 bans
Bane
316 picks · 202 bans
Dawnbreaker
313 picks · 368 bans
Ember Spirit
292 picks · 568 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 62%
Hero pool strength51% SCAGI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% cybercats
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
SCAGI 33%cybercats 67%
The model gave 67% on cybercats — the game was taken by cybercats.
Model check result
Model favoritecybercats · 67%
Series resultcybercats 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1