ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionLBLucky Birdwin 2:0
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sand King Gomezloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Lucky Bird
Pucksignature
BlackSoul · 7 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Rises · 4 games
Tiny
FrancisLee · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Rises · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
BlackSoul · 3 games
Tusk
FrancisLee · 3 games
Weaveroften banned
Rises · 3 games
Sand King Gomez
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
581 picks · 449 bans
Puck
420 picks · 891 bans
Mars
371 picks · 585 bans
Dragon Knight
357 picks · 469 bans
Snapfire
351 picks · 179 bans
Bane
317 picks · 209 bans
Dawnbreaker
311 picks · 367 bans
Ember Spirit
295 picks · 573 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)88% vs 50%
Hero pool strength60% Lucky Bird
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total72% Lucky Bird
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Lucky Bird 72%Sand King Gomez 28%
The model gave 72% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird.
Game 2prediction correct
Lucky Bird 72%Sand King Gomez 28%
The model gave 72% on Lucky Bird — the game was taken by Lucky Bird.
Model check result
Model favoriteLucky Bird · 72%
Series resultLucky Bird 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2