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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 10 games
70%
Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 9 games
67%
Bane
Bane
y` · 8 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Faith_bian · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 8 games
63%

Tundra Esports

Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
75%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 22 games
59%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
84%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 16 games
81%
Io
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
73%
Visage
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
79%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 450 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
419 picks · 891 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 586 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 470 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 213 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
312 picks · 367 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 577 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 69%
Hero pool strength53% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:19
LGD Gaming 57%Tundra Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 43:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
53% · 241 game46% · 269 games
Void SpiritNine
Void Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingAme
57% · 165 games40% · 47 games
AlchemistDaxak
Alchemist
Doom
DoomFaith_bian
57% · 83 games49% · 146 games
Chaos KnightSkiter
Chaos Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
60% · 179 games44% · 133 games
MarciSaksa
Marci
Warlock
Warlocky`
50% · 48 games41% · 121 game
JakiroSneyking
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct29:8
LGD Gaming 54%Tundra Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinAme
62% · 201 game51% · 227 games
Death ProphetDaxak
Death Prophet
Pangolier
PangolierNothingToSay
49% · 202 games48% · 103 games
JuggernautSkiter
Juggernaut
Visage
VisageFaith_bian
51% · 60 games46% · 140 games
TimbersawNine
Timbersaw
Tiny
TinyXinQ
47% · 249 games48% · 115 games
DoomSaksa
Doom
Dazzle
Dazzley`
44% · 28 games47% · 155 games
RubickSneyking
Rubick
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2