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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Spiritloss 1:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Team Secretloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Bane
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Mira · 12 games
67%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 11 games
91%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
64%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
70%
Mars
Marssignature
Collapse · 10 games
60%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
70%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
60%

Team Secret

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
56%
Zeus
Zeussignature
Nisha · 9 games
78%
Chen
Chensignature
Puppey · 8 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Zayac · 8 games
63%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
43%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 450 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
419 picks · 891 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
375 picks · 586 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 470 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
350 picks · 180 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
318 picks · 213 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
312 picks · 367 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 577 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength56% Team Spirit
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total52% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:10
Team Spirit 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierTORONTOTOKYO
48% · 133 games43% · 122 games
BatriderNisha
Batrider
Monkey King
Monkey KingYatoro
60% · 168 games55% · 256 games
WeaverCrystallis
Weaver
Razor
RazorCollapse
57% · 127 games42% · 143 games
DawnbreakerResolut1on
Dawnbreaker
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMiposhka
50% · 92 games52% · 43 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Tusk
TuskMira
47% · 69 games48% · 25 games
TechiesZayac
Techies
Game 2prediction missed
Team Spirit 52%Team Secret 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Secret.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 52%
Accuracy by game0 of 2