ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Goonsquadloss 0:2series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Into The Breachwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Goonsquad
No games played over 6 months.
Into The Breach
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 9 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 9 games
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 7 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
Pucksignature
Supream^ · 6 games
Tinysignature
Koma` · 6 games
Bane
5up · 5 games
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
581 picks · 446 bans
Puck
416 picks · 889 bans
Mars
375 picks · 586 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 470 bans
Snapfire
349 picks · 180 bans
Bane
318 picks · 213 bans
Dawnbreaker
308 picks · 366 bans
Ember Spirit
297 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 77%
Hero pool strength59% Into The Breach
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Goonsquad
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:34
Goonsquad 59%Into The Breach 41%
The model gave 59% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 54:25.
Game 2prediction missed38:21
Goonsquad 59%Into The Breach 41%
The model gave 59% on Goonsquad — the game was taken by Into The Breach in 42:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteGoonsquad · 59%
Series resultInto The Breach 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2