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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Rune Eatersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 26 games
62%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 21 game
62%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 20 games
65%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 18 games
67%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 17 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 14 games
71%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 61 game
64%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 55 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 47 games
47%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 41 game
41%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Htrd · 34 games
62%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 33 games
58%
Tusk
Tusk
ani-san · 33 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
675 picks · 836 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
585 picks · 604 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
481 picks · 328 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
479 picks · 419 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1098 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
398 picks · 698 bans
58%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
398 picks · 1011 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
388 picks · 630 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Team Lynx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total52% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed46:53
Team Lynx 52%Rune Eaters 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 58:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
58% · 150 games45% · 334 games
Windrangeryowaai
Windranger
Clinkz
Clinkz7jesu
59% · 112 games48% · 139 games
ViperEthereal
Viper
Mars
MarsVladikTheHtiviy
49% · 496 games50% · 459 games
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
49% · 764 games45% · 543 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Marci
MarciQBFY
53% · 294 games45% · 341 game
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct48:21
Team Lynx 54%Rune Eaters 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand King
Sand Kingmellojul
55% · 247 games40% · 66 games
Lunayowaai
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
54% · 260 games50% · 141 game
LeshracEthereal
Leshrac
Slark
Slark7jesu
48% · 93 games46% · 116 games
DawnbreakerAnkou
Dawnbreaker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonQBFY
58% · 422 games45% · 436 games
Tuskani-san
Tusk
Pugna
Pugnakreker
55% · 253 games45% · 516 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct28:35
Team Lynx 53%Rune Eaters 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 48:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin7jesu
53% · 310 games50% · 272 games
Ursayowaai
Ursa
Razor
Razormellojul
53% · 151 game53% · 191 game
Monkey KingEthereal
Monkey King
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
48% · 235 games47% · 180 games
BrewmasterAnkou
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
49% · 221 game47% · 532 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Tusk
Tuskkreker
46% · 613 games54% · 355 games
Shadow Demonani-san
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 52%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3