Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Spiritwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Tundra Esports
Chaos Knightsignature
Skiter · 24 games
Doomoften banned
33 · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 19 games
Beastmastersignature
33 · 15 games
Iosignature
Sneyking · 15 games
Visagesignature
33 · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Sneyking · 14 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Skiter · 13 games
Team Spirit
Banesignature
Miposhka · 16 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Yatoro · 11 games
Rubicksignature
Mira · 11 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Mira · 10 games
Kunkkasignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 10 games
Sand Kingsignature
Collapse · 10 games
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
581 picks · 447 bans
Puck
413 picks · 888 bans
Mars
377 picks · 589 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 473 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
Bane
322 picks · 215 bans
Dawnbreaker
305 picks · 364 bans
Ember Spirit
297 picks · 576 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total64% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:40
Tundra Esports 58%Team Spirit 42%
The model gave 58% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 44:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainNine
WeaverYatoro
AbaddonSkiter
ViperCollapse
BeastmasterDaxak
KunkkaTORONTOTOKYO
SnapfireSneyking
TinyMira
MarciSaksa
RubickMiposhka
Game 2prediction missed
Tundra Esports 64%Team Spirit 36%
The model gave 64% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Team Spirit.
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 64%
Series resultTeam Spirit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2