?
arrow_backBack to match
Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
96%4%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Deboostersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
y` · 9 games
67%
Bane
Bane
y` · 8 games
50%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 8 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 8 games
63%

Deboosters

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Malik · 2 games
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Malik · 2 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
lil pleb · 2 games
0%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
0%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
0%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Malik · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
581 picks · 447 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
413 picks · 888 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
377 picks · 589 bans
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 473 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
322 picks · 215 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
305 picks · 364 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
297 picks · 576 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 29%
Hero pool strength65% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total96% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:7
LGD Gaming 83%Deboosters 17%
The model gave 83% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 28:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNothingToSay
61% · 49 games50% · 94 games
Nature's Prophetlil pleb
Nature's Prophet
Spectre
SpectreAme
70% · 6 games48% · 91 game
UrsaMalik
Ursa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetFaith_bian
55% · 38 games
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
34% · 27 games
Tiny
TinyXinQ
49% · 65 games
Game 2prediction correct47:26
LGD Gaming 82%Deboosters 18%
The model gave 82% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 23:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackAme
little data52% · 24 games
Pudgelil pleb
Pudge
Timbersaw
TimbersawFaith_bian
39% · 28 games55% · 82 games
UndyingMalik
Undying
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
50% · 40 games
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
44% · 12 games
Io
Ioy`
52% · 26 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 96%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2