ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gaming Rebornwin 1:0series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 1:0
DGG Esportsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming Reborn
Dawnbreakeroften banned
b1kA · 1 game
Dazzle
antoha · 1 game
Puckoften banned
hAze · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
layme · 1 game
Visageoften banned
Shachlo · 1 game
DGG Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
583 picks · 444 bans
Puck
412 picks · 887 bans
Mars
379 picks · 590 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 474 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
304 picks · 363 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 67%
Hero pool strength57% V-Gaming Reborn
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% DGG Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:9
V-Gaming Reborn 46%DGG Esports 54%
The model gave 54% on DGG Esports — the game was taken by V-Gaming Reborn in 36:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteDGG Esports · 54%
Series resultV-Gaming Reborn 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1