ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Rune Eaterswin 1:0series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 6 games
Tinysignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
ArrOw · 5 games
Mirana
ArrOw · 5 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
583 picks · 443 bans
Puck
411 picks · 887 bans
Mars
379 picks · 589 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 473 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
303 picks · 363 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 574 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:50
Rune Eaters 27%Team Unique 73%
The model gave 73% on Team Unique — the game was taken by Team Unique in 55:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 73%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 1