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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Into The Breachwin 1:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IVYloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Into The Breach

Enigma
Enigmasignature
Kidaro · 9 games
78%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Era · 9 games
78%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Otaker · 7 games
86%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 6 games
33%
Puck
Pucksignature
Supream^ · 6 games
83%
Bane
Bane
5up · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Kidaro · 5 games
40%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Xibbe · 5 games
80%

IVY

Tiny
Tinysignature
Mo13ei · 22 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Qupe · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Mirana
Qupe · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Qupe · 11 games
45%
Bane
Bane
jmn- · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Max · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Mo13ei · 10 games
70%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
jmn- · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
582 picks · 443 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
411 picks · 886 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 589 bans
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 473 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
303 picks · 363 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 574 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 69%
Hero pool strength54% Into The Breach
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Into The Breach
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Into The Breach 54%IVY 46%
The model gave 54% on Into The Breach — the game was taken by Into The Breach.
Model check result
Model favoriteInto The Breach · 54%
Series resultInto The Breach 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1