ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Hydraloss 0:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
PARI PARNIwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hydra
Puckoften banned
Askold · 27 games
Hoodwink
Muka · 21 game
Invokersignature
Askold · 18 games
Jakirosignature
Zayac · 16 games
Bane
Muka · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 15 games
Pugnasignature
Zayac · 15 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Kami · 13 games
PARI PARNI
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
582 picks · 444 bans
Puck
411 picks · 884 bans
Mars
379 picks · 592 bans
Dragon Knight
360 picks · 474 bans
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
Bane
324 picks · 216 bans
Dawnbreaker
302 picks · 361 bans
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength52% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed14:33
Hydra 64%PARI PARNI 36%
The model gave 64% on Hydra — the game was taken by PARI PARNI in 31:44.
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 64%
Series resultPARI PARNI 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1