One Move vs V-Gaming Reborn — prediction EOM2ОО · Dota 2

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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1

result vs prediction

One Moveloss 0:1

series probability

78%22%

probability at match start · final 0:1

V-Gaming Rebornwin 1:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

One Move

Miranasignature

sayuw · 31 game

81%

Banesignature

Panto · 30 games

70%

Sand Kingsignature

mellojul · 29 games

69%

Storm Spiritsignature

mellojul · 28 games

68%

Pangolieroften banned

mellojul · 27 games

59%

Marssignature

AfterLife · 20 games

85%

Medusasignature

Smiling Knight · 19 games

74%

Ember Spiritoften banned

mellojul · 15 games

40%

V-Gaming Reborn

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Tiny

582 picks · 443 bans

50%

Puck

410 picks · 884 bans

56%

Mars

379 picks · 591 bans

45%

Dragon Knight

360 picks · 473 bans

51%

Snapfire

348 picks · 179 bans

49%

Bane

323 picks · 216 bans

56%

Dawnbreaker

301 picks · 361 bans

47%

Ember Spirit

299 picks · 575 bans

44%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength61% One Move

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total78% One Move

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed22:30

One Move 66%V-Gaming Reborn 34%

The model gave 66% on One Move — the game was taken by V-Gaming Reborn in 40:00.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo