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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
OGloss 1:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Ceb · 16 games
88%
Puck
Pucksignature
bzm · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 14 games
50%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 14 games
71%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ATF · 14 games
79%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Taiga · 13 games
69%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Yuragi · 11 games
82%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
bzm · 10 games
70%

Nigma Galaxy

Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
GH · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinysignature
KuroKy · 11 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
GH · 11 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
30%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Miracle- · 9 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
KuroKy · 9 games
33%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
rmN- · 8 games
63%
Io
Iosignature
GH · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
584 picks · 441 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
408 picks · 884 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
382 picks · 594 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
361 picks · 475 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
348 picks · 179 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
325 picks · 217 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
301 picks · 359 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
300 picks · 578 bans
43%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 65%
Hero pool strength56% OG
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total54% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:21
OG 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 41:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidYuragi
58% · 11 games54% · 91 game
LeshracMiracle-
Leshrac
Timbersaw
TimbersawATF
45% · 117 games49% · 268 games
PuckSumaiL
Puck
Void Spirit
Void Spiritbzm
47% · 214 games45% · 58 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Enchantress
EnchantressMisha
43% · 127 games55% · 164 games
IoGH
Io
Lion
LionTaiga
56% · 221 game53% · 109 games
Nyx AssassinKuroKy
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed7:26
OG 52%Nigma Galaxy 48%
The model gave 52% on OG — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 28:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaYuragi
51% · 123 games54% · 154 games
RazorSumaiL
Razor
Invoker
Invokerbzm
49% · 94 games46% · 56 games
Nature's ProphetMinD_ContRoL
Nature's Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaTaiga
56% · 52 games50% · 22 games
PudgeMiracle-
Pudge
Void Spirit
Void SpiritATF
47% · 132 games52% · 122 games
Winter WyvernGH
Winter Wyvern
Windranger
WindrangerMisha
40% · 64 games53% · 111 games
Nyx AssassinKuroKy
Nyx Assassin
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 54%
Accuracy by game1 of 2