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Gamers8 Riyadh Masters · BO2
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Razor
Razorsignature
Faith_bian · 10 games
80%
Bane
Bane
y` · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomsignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 9 games
89%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
NothingToSay · 8 games
75%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Ame · 8 games
63%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
NothingToSay · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
y` · 8 games
63%

Team Secret

Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Puppey · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
56%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 7 games
43%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 7 games
43%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Crystallis · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nisha · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
583 picks · 444 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 883 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 598 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
363 picks · 475 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
347 picks · 178 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
327 picks · 219 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
300 picks · 356 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 579 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 57%
Hero pool strength56% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:44
LGD Gaming 65%Team Secret 35%
The model gave 65% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 26:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistAme
48% · 32 games57% · 115 games
BloodseekerCrystallis
Bloodseeker
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
43% · 94 games51% · 170 games
DawnbreakerResolut1on
Dawnbreaker
Visage
VisageFaith_bian
48% · 49 games48% · 103 games
ZeusNisha
Zeus
Tiny
TinyXinQ
50% · 184 games52% · 21 game
TechiesZayac
Techies
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyverny`
50% · 90 games56% · 40 games
ChenPuppey
Chen
Game 2prediction missed4:25
LGD Gaming 68%Team Secret 32%
The model gave 68% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Team Secret in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackAme
57% · 33 games41% · 60 games
Phantom AssassinCrystallis
Phantom Assassin
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinNothingToSay
57% · 123 games52% · 169 games
Death ProphetResolut1on
Death Prophet
Enigma
EnigmaFaith_bian
54% · 51 game47% · 89 games
ZeusNisha
Zeus
Tiny
TinyXinQ
50% · 193 games43% · 79 games
DoomZayac
Doom
Warlock
Warlocky`
48% · 28 games46% · 31 game
ChenPuppey
Chen
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 80%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2