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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Summit Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Summit Gaming

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
TrazaM · 10 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Mercury · 8 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Nj · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nj · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
czy · 6 games
67%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Nj · 5 games
60%
Lion
Lion
czy · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 4 games
25%

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 14 games
57%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Azur4 · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 6 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
579 picks · 443 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 880 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 598 bans
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
362 picks · 476 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
325 picks · 220 bans
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
299 picks · 354 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 579 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:13
Summit Gaming 44%Army Geniuses 56%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 31:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUnknown-
50% · 116 games58% · 177 games
MedusainYourdreaM
Medusa
Leshrac
LeshracMercury
37% · 61 game59% · 77 games
Enigmadb-
Enigma
Mars
MarsNj
45% · 256 games51% · 299 games
Tinydalul
Tiny
Lion
Lionczy
43% · 74 games50% · 8 games
DazzleVarizh
Dazzle
Warlock
WarlockTrazaM
49% · 54 games
Game 2prediction missed43:17
Summit Gaming 47%Army Geniuses 53%
The model gave 53% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Summit Gaming in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNj
52% · 126 games50% · 166 games
RazorinYourdreaM
Razor
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightUnknown-
47% · 182 games44% · 56 games
Underlorddb-
Underlord
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMercury
58% · 222 games45% · 244 games
TinyVarizh
Tiny
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritczy
51% · 58 games49% · 170 games
Snapfiredalul
Snapfire
Warlock
WarlockTrazaM
56% · 48 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 57%
Series resultSummit Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2