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ESL One Malaysia 2022. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Army Geniuseswin 1:0
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Neon Esportsloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 13 games
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Varizh · 10 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 8 games
38%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
woMy · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Azur4 · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Azur4 · 6 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Azur4 · 6 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 6 games
33%

Neon Esports

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Enryu · 10 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Se · 10 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ChuaN · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Karma丶 · 8 games
13%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Enryu · 7 games
29%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Enryu · 7 games
29%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
ChuaN · 6 games
17%
Mirana
Mirana
ChuaN · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
578 picks · 444 bans
50%
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 878 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
383 picks · 599 bans
46%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
362 picks · 474 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
346 picks · 177 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
324 picks · 222 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
299 picks · 579 bans
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
298 picks · 353 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 23%
Hero pool strength58% Army Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total60% Army Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:21
Army Geniuses 56%Neon Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Army Geniuses — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 38:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackinYourdreaM
51% · 17 games51% · 63 games
LifestealerFortuneSoul
Lifestealer
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerdb-
48% · 57 games55% · 90 games
BloodseekerEnryu
Bloodseeker
Tiny
Tinydalul
49% · 115 games45% · 41 game
JakiroSe
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockVarizh
44% · 5 games
Model check result
Model favoriteArmy Geniuses · 60%
Series resultArmy Geniuses 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1